The Biden administration is closely watching how Iran reacts to the sudden death of its president, expecting the regional status quo to hold while still wary that one allegation could escalate tensions with Israel.

For now, senior U.S. officials expect few — if any — changes in the way of Iran’s policies before the Islamist-led country elects a new president following the weekend helicopter crash that killed Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian.Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, 85, remains the country’s top authority. The immediate political uncertainty revolves around who will be elected the next president, a constrained process effectively controlled by the country’s hardline clerical leaders. A more long-term question — one Iran is likely better prepared for — is who will succeed Khamenei as supreme leader: Raisi had been a potential candidate and his death adds more succession uncertainty.
Washington is watching to see how Iran handles the political crisis and what it means for the supreme leader competition, the timing of which could depend on Khamenei’s health. But the Biden administration believes Iran will be too gripped with its immediate conundrums to make major changes to its regional policies, including its aid to proxy forces that bedevil many Arab states, Israel and the United States.