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Russia Turning The Corner On Sanctions
17:03, 08.10.2015 | mamul.am
9233 | 1

Russia has turned the corner, thanks in part to the recent candid, public appearances by its president, Vladimir Putin. The Sept. 29 interview with Charlie Rose in the suburbs of Moscow, his United Nations General Assembly speech about fighting terrorism in Syria, and Germany and France suddenly leaning more towards Russia on the Ukraine variable means Russia is looking less gnarly than it did a few months ago. For investors, this may be a time to start dipping into Russian stocks.

Politically speaking, it appears that Germany and France have grown tired of Ukraine’s bitter divorce from Russia. Once in the middle, they are now picking sides. And it is Russia, they say, that is abiding by the Minsk II cease-fire agreement in east Ukraine and not the out-of-favor leaders in Kyiv. All of this bodes well for the lifting of sanctions perhaps as early as the first quarter, says Vladimir Signorelli, head of macro-research firm Bretton Woods LLC in Long Valley, NJ.

“There was news out of Russia on Friday that (German chancellor Angela) Merkel had basically acknowledged that Crimea would stay Russian. While I haven’t seen any verification of that in the West, Crimea was never addressed in the Minsk II Accords. So if the rescission of sanctions on Russia simply requires adherence to Minsk II and given the popular discontent with the sanctions in Europe, I wouldn’t be surprised to see pressure build against extending sanctions in January,” he says. “An optimistic case might see the sanctions regime breaking down by March, certainly June 2016. And because markets are always keyed on the future, and this optimistic scenario looks increasingly likely, one could begin to position for this now.”

One of the easiest trades into Russia is Van Eck’s Market Vectors Russia (RSX) exchange traded fund.

On the economic front, Barclays Capital analyst Dan Hewitt said he expects inflation to collapse by 50% at least next year to 7%. That will give room for a rate cut by the Central Bank and give Russia’s range-bound equities a bust, regardless of oil’s direction.

Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.1 in September from 47.9 in August. This was the highest level since February and well ahead of expectations.

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